Nber business cycle dating committee members
In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.
The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.
The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.
Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.
The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.